News Discussion

The Foreign Talent Basic Law: Proposal from a Former Police Chief

In 2018, the year I returned to Japan after a long assignment as a Moscow correspondent, what surprised me most was the noticeable increase in the number of foreigners. Statistical data confirms this trend. At the end of 2021, Japan had approximately 2.76 million foreign residents. That number has since grown by more than 300,000 per year, reaching around 3.77 million by the end of 2024. Foreigners now make up about 3% of the total population.

In 2023, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research projected that foreigners will account for 10.8% of Japan's population by 2070. Given the recent pace of growth, some experts believe this figure could be reached even earlier. A foreign population above 10% would bring Japan in line with many Western countries.

In response to this trend, the Outlook Foundation, chaired by former National Police Agency Commissioner General Takaji Kunimatsu, is advocating for the creation of a Basic Law to guide the acceptance of foreign talent. In June, Kunimatsu and other members held a press conference at the Japan National Press Club to outline their proposals.

Their concern is clear: while the inflow of foreigners is increasingly seen as a solution to Japan's shrinking population and labor shortages, there are very few venues where the issue is discussed in an integrated, strategic way.

Talks about population decline and regional revitalization often barely mention the role of foreign workers. Meanwhile, discussions about immigration tend to focus on social tensions or how foreigners are treated. Kunimatsu and his colleagues argue that these issues must be addressed more comprehensively. They believe Japan needs a Basic Law to manage foreign labor strategically and responsibly.

Under their proposal, the Basic Law would define foreign talent as "individuals who will enrich local communities and Japan as a whole." Integration into Japan's economy, society, and culture would be a core principle.

The proposed framework would work as follows:


The proposal also calls for the Basic Law to emphasize the "security and safety of Japanese society." It suggests introducing a new residence status, tentatively named "Regional Revitalization.“

Naturally, the plan raises questions. Should Japan rely more on labor-saving technologies instead of foreign workers to address population and labor shortages? Do local governments have the capacity to manage such responsibilities? Should the police play a more active role in maintaining public safety?

Despite these concerns, I believe the proposal is meaningful because it invites serious debate. What's essential is not whether to accept foreigners, but how to manage the process effectively.

If large numbers of foreigners arrive suddenly, it could create friction with local communities and, over time, greatly alter Japan's national identity. The worst-case scenario is an uncontrolled, unplanned influx without strategy or guiding principles.

We must avoid repeating the situation in places like Kawaguchi City in Saitama Prefecture, where tensions have flared between Kurdish immigrants and local residents. Nor should Japan follow the path of some Western countries that are seeing intense backlash against immigration.

There is no time to lose. Japan must begin a serious, nationwide debate on immigration policy — before the situation outpaces its ability to manage it.

1. 1. in line with　～と一致して、～に沿って
   The pollution levels from the trucks are in line with the new rules for carbon emissions.
2. 2. comprehensively　包括的に、徹底的に
   The Bill Gates Foundation has been comprehensively trying to put an end to polio.
3. 3. enrich　（生活・地域など）を豊かにする
   Music programs enrich the lives of millions of junior high and high school students.
4. 4. integration　（社会への）統合、融合
   The integration of new lessons into the curriculum will take some time.
5. 5. backlash　反発、反動
   There has been a great deal of backlash from the recent tax increase.

1. 1. According to the writer, what are the main concerns or problems about the current discussion of workers from overseas?
2. 2. In your own words, describe the contents of the Basic Law.
3. 3. The writer warns, “Some Western countries…are seeing intense backlash against immigration.” What countries is he referring to, and what are the forms of backlash there?
4. 4. Should the solution focus on technology, on guest workers, or both?
5. 5. What can local governments and communities do to better help guest workers and immigrants integrate into Japanese society?

長いモスクワ特派員生活を終えて日本に帰国した平成30年、最も驚いたのは外国人が目立って増えていることだった。これは大変なことではないかと思い、当時の社内で連載企画を提案した記憶がある。その後、筆者は埼玉県東部に住んでいるが、周囲の外国人は体感として本当に増えた。

統計上も外国人急増は明らかだ。令和3年末に約276万人だった在留外国人は1年に30万人以上のペースで増え、昨年末には約377万人となった。今、人口に占める外国人の割合は約3％である。

国立社会保障・人口問題研究所は令和5年、人口動態などに基づき、52（2070）年の人口に占める外国人の割合を10・8％と推計した。近年の急増ペースに鑑みれば、52年を待たずに10％を超えると予測する専門家もいる。外国人比率が10％以上というのは現在の欧米諸国並みである。

こうした状況を踏まえ、国松孝次元警察庁長官が会長を務める「未来を創る財団」は、外国人材の受け入れに関する「基本法」を制定すべきだと訴えている。先月、国松氏らが日本記者クラブで記者会見し、提言内容を説明した。

国松氏らの問題意識は、日本の人口急減と人手不足を埋め合わせる形で外国人流入が進んでいるのに、そのことを一体的に議論する場が少ないということだ。

人口急減や地方創生の議論では外国人活用にあまり話が及ばない。他方、外国人流入を巡る議論では住民との摩擦や外国人の処遇が中心テーマとなっている。これらを総合的に議論し、国が基本法を制定して戦略的に外国人を受け入れるべきだと国松氏らは話す。

提言によると、基本法では受け入れる外国人の基準を「地域、ひいては日本全体を豊かにする外国人材」とし、彼らの「日本経済・社会・文化への統合」を基本理念とする。

具体的な受け入れの流れは、①地方自治体が受け入れたい外国人材の技能水準や国籍、期間、規模について計画を策定する②国が安心・安全の確保やマクロ経済の観点から調整し、決定する③地方自治体が責任を持って外国人材を管理・支援する―という想定だ。「日本社会の安心と安全の確保」を基本法に明記することや、在留資格「地方創生」（仮称）の創設といったことも提案されている。

こうした内容への賛否や疑問は当然あろう。人口減少と人手不足の問題では、外国人ありきでなく、新技術導入による労働効率化を真剣に考えるべきではないか。国松氏らの提言は地域主導をうたっているが、地方自治体にその足腰はあるのか。「安心・安全」を確保するには警察を制度に絡ませるべきではないか―。

それでも、提言には議論に一石を投じる意義があると筆者は思う。外国人流入の問題で決定的に重要なのは、「動態をしっかりコントロールすること」だと考えるからだ。

急激に外国人が流入すれば、地域住民との摩擦が確実に起き、ひいては日本の国柄が変わってしまう。最悪なのは理念も計画もなく、なし崩しで外国人が増えてしまうことである。埼玉県川口市のクルド人問題を他の地域で繰り返してはならず、移民への反発が急速に高まっている欧米の轍（てつ）を踏んではならない。

真剣に国策を議論することが待ったなしである。