News Discussion

Sanae Takaichi Faces Major Diplomatic Tests as Likely Prime Minister

Newly elected Liberal Democratic Party President Sanae Takaichi will face a series of critical diplomatic challenges upon her anticipated assumption of the prime ministership at an extraordinary Diet session in mid-October.

The most significant of these will be the visit from United States President Donald Trump, currently slated for October 27–29.

Their first face-to-face summit will test Takaichi's ability to strengthen the Japan–US alliance and build personal rapport.

With China and South Korea viewing Takaichi as a "hawk," she will also need to advance relations with the East Asian states while firmly asserting Japan's positions where necessary.

Trump's upcoming visit to Japan will be his first since attending the G20 Osaka Summit in June 2019.

At that time, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe leveraged their shared interest in golf to foster a strong personal relationship. It laid the groundwork for a significant deepening of bilateral ties.

Some observers point out that Takaichi lacks experience in key diplomatic roles, leaving her largely untested on the international stage.

Yet those close to her express confidence, noting, "Takaichi possesses strong interpersonal skills. There is no cause for concern.“

If a summit materializes, Trump may push for an increase in Japan's defense spending. Takaichi has signaled a willingness to take on that challenge.

Takaichi commented on raising defense spending to 2% of GDP by fiscal year 2027, as outlined in Japan's three key national security documents, in an October 1 contribution to the Hudson Institute. She stated that Japan will "continuously review its strategy and defense capabilities."

Amid rising tensions in East Asia, she has also signaled that the target may need to be raised beyond 2%.

Takaichi is also expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, which starts on October 31.

A key focus of her visit will be to meet with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and also with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

In the same contribution, Takaichi noted, "Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are, of course, concerns for Japan and are of the utmost importance to the international community."

While avoiding direct mention of Xi, she added, "I also wish to engage in solid and candid dialogue with Chinese leaders."

The event presents an opportunity to convey Japan's position to Beijing.

Meanwhile, Beijing and Seoul remain highly wary of Takaichi due to her long-standing practice of visiting Yasukuni Shrine.

During the LDP leadership campaign, she did not clarify whether she would continue the practice as prime minister.

The Shrine's Annual Fall Rites is scheduled from October 17 to 19, and Takaichi has attended every year. Conservative supporters expect the new LDP leader to continue this tradition.

Her decision this year will therefore be closely observed.

1. 1. diplomatic　外交の、外交的な
   Diplomatic relations between the two countries have improved in recent years.
2. 2. summit　首脳会談、頂上会議
   The next international summit on climate change is in November.
3. 3. role　役割、任務
   I have really enjoyed my role here at the school as college advisor.
4. 4. stability　安定、安定性
   Most people want a certain amount of stability in their lives.
5. 5. wary　警戒している、用心している
   Danielle said that she is wary of the president’s comments about the economy.

1. 1. According to the article, what will Prime Minister Takaichi’s first and most important challenge be?
2. 2. What meeting will she be attending after that at the end of October? Why is the meeting important for relations with China?
3. 3. Why are leaders in China and Korea watching Takaichi closely?
4. 4. What issues do you think Prime Minister Takaichi should focus on the most? Discuss both national and international topics.
5. 5. Do you support Prime Minister Takaichi? Why or why not?

自民党の高市早苗総裁は今月中旬召集予定の臨時国会での首相就任直後から、立て続けに重要な外交日程に臨む。なかでも正念場は27～29日で調整されているトランプ米大統領の訪日だ。初の対面での首脳会談開催が想定され、日米同盟の深化と個人的信頼関係の構築が求められる。高市氏を「タカ派」とみる中韓には、主張すべきは主張しながら関係を進展させていく必要がある。

トランプ氏の訪日は、令和元年6月に大阪市で開かれた20カ国・地域首脳会議（G20大阪サミット）への参加以来だ。当時の安倍晋三首相はトランプ氏の趣味であるゴルフを通じた交流にも取り組み、強固な個人的信頼関係を築いた。その信頼関係を礎に、日米関係は大きく深化した。高市氏は外交分野の要職経験がなく、外交手腕は未知数だとみる向きもある。ただ、高市氏周辺は「高市氏は人間力がある。心配ない」と自信をのぞかせる。

首脳会談が実現した場合、トランプ氏からは防衛費負担増を求められる可能性もある。これに対し、高市氏自身も防衛費増額には前向きだ。令和9年度に国内総生産（GDP）比2％まで防衛費を増やすと定めた安保関連3文書について、米シンクタンクへの1日付の寄稿で「不断に検討を重ねていく」と明記。緊張の度合いを高める東アジア情勢を踏まえ、2％以上への引き上げも視野に入れている。

また、高市氏は31日に韓国で始まるアジア太平洋経済協力会議（APEC）に出席する見通しだ。訪韓中に韓国の李在明大統領との首脳会談に加え、中国の習近平国家主席との首脳会談が実現できるかが大きな焦点となる。米シンクタンクへの寄稿では「台湾海峡の平和と安定は日本の関心事で、国際社会のためにも重要だ」と言及した。そのうえで、習氏の名指しは避けつつ「中国のリーダーともしっかり、率直に対話したい」とした。習氏に対し、日本側の立場を明確に伝える機会とすべきだ。

ただ、靖国神社参拝を続けてきた高市氏に対し中韓の警戒感は高い。高市氏は総裁選期間中は首相就任後の参拝を巡る対応を明言しなかった。17～19日は靖国神社の秋季例大祭が営まれる。高市氏は例年、秋季例大祭に参拝を続けてきた。保守層の参拝への期待は強く、高市氏の対応が注目される。（大島悠亮）