News Discussion

Weathering China: Can Japan Handle the Travel Advisory?

It's been more than two weeks since the Chinese government urged its citizens not to travel to Japan, following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on a potential Taiwan contingency.

The travel advisory has prompted some group tour cancellations, but related industries in Japan have largely remained calm. Meanwhile, efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese visitors are steadily progressing.

The Kansai region, which attracts a large share of Chinese tourists, has seen the most noticeable impact. According to the Osaka Convention & Tourism Bureau, 50–70% of Chinese bookings at roughly 20 hotels in Osaka have been cancelled through the end of December.

By contrast, many hotel operators in Tokyo report that "there has been no significant impact so far," indicating clear regional differences in the fallout.

The short-term impact is unavoidable. Of particular concern is the anticipated slump during next February's Spring Festival, which coincides with the Chinese Lunar New Year.

"The Spring Festival sales period will be challenging," says aviation and travel analyst Kotaro Toriumi. "The impact is likely to extend into the spring, and a full recovery is unlikely for at least six months to a year."

After rising sharply, hotel prices have begun to ease in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Reflecting on that, Toriumi believes "urban areas can expect some relief from overtourism and a rebound in Japanese travelers."

Still, he cautions that these gains "will not make up for the losses expected during the Spring Festival period.“

The key, therefore, is reducing Japan's dependence on the Chinese market.

According to the Japan National Tourism Organization, Japan welcomed over 35.54 million visitors between January and October. China remained the largest source of inbound tourists at roughly 23%. However, while it's still the top share, it has fallen from about 30% in 2019.

In October alone, 13 countries and regions, including South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States, recorded their highest visitor numbers to Japan. The Middle East saw a 33.8% increase compared with the same month in 2024, while Germany posted a 29.2% rise.

Chinese tourists are slowly vanishing from major sightseeing sites following Beijing's travel advisory. Yet many hotels and restaurants that depend on inbound visitors are navigating the situation without significant disruptions.

One major reason is that their customer base has broadened to include travelers from Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia, helping to mitigate the "China risk" that has disproportionately affected the tourism sector.

Kai Iwasaki, a rickshaw driver stationed in front of Asakusa's Kaminarimon, says the Chinese tourists who once made up roughly 30% of his customers have virtually disappeared.

Although he does not speak Chinese, he is adept at serving visitors in English. "I'm putting more focus on travelers from Europe, America, and Southeast Asia, but earnings haven't really changed," he says.

Yuka Mitsuhashi, who works at the popular sweet shop Oimoyasan Koushin, says, "Until recently, most of our customers were Chinese, but lately we've been seeing more visitors from South Korea, Europe, and the US."

Even with fewer Chinese customers, lines still form, thanks to visitors from other countries and school excursion groups, she adds.

A 23-year-old part-time worker at the street food stall Asakusa Menchi echoed this sentiment: "We have many tourists from Europe and America, so our sales remain largely unchanged."

The Imperial Hotel Tokyo in Chiyoda Ward reported a few banquet cancellations but noted that "the impact is likely less than at other hotels."

Fujita Kanko, operator of Hotel Chinzanso and the Washington Hotel, also says "there has been no significant impact so far."

Chinese visitor numbers slowed during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the company explained that it has since expanded marketing to attract guests from Europe, the US, and Australia.

1. 1. advisory　注意報・警報
   There is a storm advisory for this evening for the eastern half of the country.
2. 2. anticipated　期待される、待ち望まれた
   The New Year is generally the most anticipated holiday of the year.
3. 3. dependence　依存
   We need to end our dependence on fossil fuels to produce electricity.
4. 4. broaden　拡大する
   Taking this course can help broaden your view of the world.
5. 5. earnings　収益
   My wife and I used our earnings for the last ten years to buy a house.

1. 1. Which areas of the tourism industry have been affected so far by the Chinese travel advisory? Which have not been affected?
2. 2. Why haven’t many businesses been affected by the ban?
3. 3. What are some examples of the ways that businesses have adapted?
4. 4. Although the tourism industry can survive without large numbers of Chinese tourists, those tourists can boost Japan’s economy. What do you think needs to be done to bring them back?
5. 5. Imagine you work for an advertising company. What aspects of Japan and Japanese culture would you promote in your ads? Why?

高市早苗首相の台湾有事を巡る国会答弁に反発し、中国政府が11月14日に日本への渡航自粛を呼びかけてから約半月が経過した。一部では団体客のキャンセルなど影響も出ているが、業界は比較的、冷静に受け止めている。インバウンド（訪日客）の中国依存からの脱却も進む。

影響が目立つのは中国人の団体客が多い関西地方だ。大阪観光局によると、大阪府内のホテル約20社で12月末までの中国人の宿泊予約の50～70％にキャンセルが発生した。一方で、都内のホテル業者からは「今のところ大きな影響はない」との声が多く聞かれ、状況に地域差がある。

当面の短期的な影響は避けられない。特に中国の旧正月にあたる2月の「春節」での落ち込みを懸念する声があがる。航空・旅行アナリストの鳥海高太朗氏は「春節商戦は厳しい。春までの影響は確定しており、回復は早くても半年から1年先ではないか」とみる。

東京、大阪、京都では高騰が著しかったホテルの宿泊価格が下がり始めており、鳥海氏は「今後、都市部はオーバーツーリズム（観光公害）の緩和と日本人客の回復が期待される。ただ、春節の落ち込みを補うことにはならない」とみている。

カギを握るのは中国依存からの脱却だ。日本政府観光局によると、今年1～10月の訪日客数は3554万7200人。国・地域別では中国が約23％で首位だが、2019年の約30％からは減少した。

直近の10月には韓国や台湾、米国など13の国・地域が10月として過去最高を記録。中東は前年同月比33・8％、ドイツは同29・2％の伸びをみせている。

中国政府が自国民に日本への渡航自粛を求めてから2週間あまり。国内の観光地から中国人客が消えつつあるが、インバウンド（訪日客）をターゲットにしていても、この状況を冷静に受け止めるホテルや飲食店は少なくない。欧米や東南アジアなどにも客層が広がっていることが共通しており、観光ビジネスを狙い撃つ「チャイナリスク」を巧みに回避していた。

東京・浅草の雷門前で人力車夫をする岩崎櫂（かい）さん（20）によると、これまで3割程度を占めていた中国人客が姿を消したという。中国語はできないが、英語での接客が得意で「欧米や東南アジアなどの人により力を入れて対応している。売り上げにそこまで変化はない」と話す。

人気スイーツ店「おいもやさん興伸」で働く三橋由香利さん（40）は「少し前まではお客さまのほとんどが中国人だったが、最近は韓国や欧米の方が多い」。中国人客が減っても、他国からの観光客や修学旅行生らで行列ができているという。食べ歩きグルメの「浅草メンチ」のアルバイト男性（23）も「欧米からの観光客が多く、売り上げはほとんど変わらない」と語る。

「万雷ホテル」支配人の南隼さんは「（中国人客の）キャンセルが出たとしても、すぐに埋まる」と説明する。中国政府による日本への渡航自粛要請が報じられて以降、中国人観光客は目に見えて減少したが、インバウンド客の中心は米国や豪州からで、「危機感はない」と言い切る。

浅草以外でも影響は限定的との声が上がる。

帝国ホテル東京（東京都千代田区）は、宴会のキャンセルが少数あったものの「他のホテルに比べれば影響は少ないのではないか」とみる。

ホテル椿山荘東京（文京区）や「ワシントンホテル」などを運営する藤田観光（同）も「今のところ大きな影響はない」ととらえる。同社では、新型コロナウイルス禍で中国からの客足が鈍っている間、欧米、オーストラリアへのセールスを拡大したという。